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Magnolia Political Report #42
June 3, 2003
Hits this year: 343,715
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Financial Notables
Governor
Over the past reporting period, Haley Barbour outpaced incumbent Governor
Ronnie Musgrove four to one. With Barbour spending a little over a million
dollars this reporting period, Musgrove still has over a million dollar
cash-on-hand advantage over Barbour.
(Raised
– Spent = Cash on Hand)
Haley Barbour -- $2,008,166 - $1,099,388 =
$1,309,119
Musgrove -- $837,695 - $175,730 = $2,019,943
Lieutenant Governor
Though
she got a late start due to the demands of the legislative session,
Lt. Governor Amy Tuck outpaced her nearest rival nearly two-to-one in
campaign fundraising. State Senator Barbara Blackmon led all Democratic
candidates, raising about $220,000 more than her closest challenger
in the money race. Former gubernatorial candidate Jim Roberts of Pontotoc
turned some heads with his report – not because he posted big numbers,
but because he raised only about $28,000 -- $5,000 of which came after
the filing deadline had passed. Second-time LG candidate Troy Brown
reported no contributions or expenditures for the period.
(Raised
- Cash on Hand)
Amy Tuck -- $450,406 - $151,484 = $827,160
Barbara
Blackmon -- $241,586 - 82,050 = $121,585
Jim
Roberts -- $27,900 - $6,433 = $21,466
Troy Brown -- $0 on hand
Treasurer
GOP
State Treasurer candidate Tate Reeves got a lot of attention when he
reported raising more money than all five of the other Treasurer candidates
combined. Democratic hopeful Gary Anderson raised more than his other two primary opponents combined.
State Senator Rob Smith reported the least of all the six candidates
in the race, showing only $801 in his campaign warchest
heading into the second reporting period of the year.
(Raised
- Cash on Hand)
Tate
Reeves -- $103,744 - $8,094 = $95,650
Gary
Anderson -- $64,289 - $1,963 = $62,325
Rob
Smith -- $4,022 - 3,221 = $801 ($3672 personal donations)
Northern District Transportation
Commissioner
With
longtime Highway Commissioner Zack Stewart retiring, the Northern District
Transportation Comissioner’s race is the most
competitive race of its kind in the state. Though it is a long road
to Election Day, DeSoto County Supervisor
John Caldwell and State Senator Bill Minor seem to be in the driver’s
seats of their respective primaries. Caldwell has raised over
$90,000 for his run, though he has spent much of it early. For the period,
Minor and Caldwell were nearly even in their fundraising totals.
(Raised
- Cash on Hand)
John
Caldwell -- $20,584 - $38,607 = $39,488
Bill Minor -- $19,400 - $29,960 = $12,540
State Senate
Former
Congressman Roger Wicker staffer Merle Flowers out-raised all Senate candidates – incumbents
and challengers. In fact, Flowers raised so much money that he scared
away all comers for the newly created Senate District 19 seat in DeSoto County – a nearly unprecedented feat.
Political newcomer Chris Brown, who is challenging State Senator Hob
Bryan, drew attention by raising a little over
$10,000 – which is more than many challengers and incumbents raised
during the period.
Former
Oxford Mayor Pat Lamar, who is challenging incumbent Senator Gray Tollison, looks to be in the process of amassing a significant
campaign warchest.
In
open seats, Senate District 35 candidate Perry Lee and Senate District
11 candidate Joe Dulaney greatly outraised
their respective rivals.
(Raised
- Cash on Hand)
Merle Flowers $90,320 - $77,073
Pat
Lamar -- $37,264 - $25,360
Travis
Little -- $36,250 - $55,169
Perry
Lee -- $18,037 - $13,975
Joe
Dulaney -- $17,650 - $9551
Videt Carmichael
-- $16,824 - $24,107
Chris
Brown -- $10,384 - $8,687
House Candidates
Having
raised over $50,000, House District 64 challenger Joe Nosef
was the champion fundraiser among House candidates in the first reporting
period. Speaker of the House hopeful Billy McCoy, who doesn’t raise
PAC money and has a competitive race against Prentiss County physician
George Waddell, took out a $10,000 loan to fund the early part of his
campaign. Mark Baker has pulled out ahead not only in fundraising but
organization as well.
(Raised
- Cash on Hand)
Joe Nosef -- $50,210 - $45,192
Virginia
Carter Carlton -- $16,366 - 15,014
Billy
McCoy -- $16,345 - $10,991 ($10,000 loan)
Mark
Baker $15,484 - $9,413
Driving Mike Moore
Attorney General Mike Moore raised eyebrows earlier this month when
he dropped-off tobacco lawyer Dickie Scruggs
at his testimony to a grand jury looking into questionable loans to
several state court judges. Scruggs is a key figure in the probe that
involves at least one Mississippi Supreme Court Justice, Oliver Diaz,
Jr. Moore has given conflicting statements about his office’s involvement
in the investigation, so the car ride with Scruggs just before Scruggs
testified before the Grand Jury drew the attention of the Biloxi Sun
Herald.
J.C. Watts – Mark Warner
Last week, both Democrats and Republicans gathered for fundraisers for
their respective parties. Democrats held their 22nd annual
Jefferson-Jackson-Hamer Day Dinner Saturday night in Jackson. Virginia Democratic
Governor Mark Warner headlined one of the Party’s major fundraisers
of the year. Rankin County Republicans gathered in Jackson last Thursday
night to honor Congressman Chip Pickering. Former Congressman J.C. Watts
headlined the event which drew over 600 people.
A
piano bench took center stage at the Democratic Party's fundraiser with Party
chairman Rickey Cole holding up a broken piano bench and declaring it
the "first annual piano bench award" in honor of Republican
gubernatorial candidate Haley Barbour. (see picture below)
Early Departures
Speculation continues to mount that State Treasurer Marshall Bennett
will make an early exit from office before his term expires next January.
Rumors in Jackson speculate that Bennett could leave as early as the
end of June. State Director of Finance Administration Gary Anderson
announced that he will be leaving his position to focus full-time on
his run for State Treasurer. Wayne Burkes resigned from the Federal
Surface Transportation Board to focus all of his energy on his run for
State Treasurer.
Robert
Rohrlack, Musgrove’s second Economic Development
Chief, is leaving just days after the 1.4 billion dollar Nissan plant
celebrated it’s first car rolling off the assembly
line in Canton, Mississippi. Word on the
street is that Musgrove and Rohrlack were
never impressed with each other’s work. Musgrove immediately announced
that he would be replacing Rohrlack with Steve Hale, former Senatobia Mayor and current
MDA Chief of Staff.
Battle of the Polls
Lt. Governor Candidate Jim Roberts was in the field May 21-22 and May
27-29 conducting a survey on his chances of winning the Democratic nomination.
Undecided led the contest with 48%, trailed by Roberts with 35%, Blackmon
with 15%, and Troy Brown with 3%. Roberts poll was conducted Lauer a
Maryland based polling firm.
When
word of Roberts poll leaked out, Blackmon released her own survey taken
May 15-22 of 800 likely primary voters from across the state. Blackmon’s
poll showed her with 23% of the vote, followed by Roberts with 12%,
and Brown with 10%. In a head to head match-up with just Roberts Blackmon
led by 10 points (31%-21%). Blackmon’s poll was conducted by Washington
D.C. pollsters Penn Schoen & Berland.
Magnolia Report Poll
Results reflect
votes made by visitors to MagnoliaReport.com and are not scientific.
If the Republican Primary for House
District 64 were held today, who would win?
Joe Nosef 73%
Bill Denny 27%
(581 Votes)
If the Democratic Primary for President
were held today, who would win?
Al Sharpton 33%
Sen. John Edwards 22%
Sen. John Kerry 14%
Sen. Joe Lieberman 13%
Sen. Bob Graham 10%
Rep. Dick Gephardt 8%
(370 Votes)
If the Republican Primary for Agriculture
Commissioner were held today, who would win?
Roger Crowder 46%
Kyle Magee 31%
Max Phillips 20%
Fred Smith 3%
(291 Votes)
Quotable Quotes
From a banner trailing behind an airplane flying over the grand opening
of Nissan last week: “Thanks Trent Lott for Bringing Nissan”.
Here’s Your Sign
Several Barbara Blackmon and Mitch Tyner billboards have popped up around
the state. The most notable is a “Blackmon for Lt. Governor” billboard
in front of Lt. Governor Amy Tuck’s statewide campaign headquarters
on Lakeland Drive.
Movers and Shakers
Pickering Deputy Chief of Staff Mike Chappell from McComb
has left his position for the private sector to become director of government
affairs for Fierce & Isakowitz, a Republican
oriented lobbying, consulting and public affairs firm in Washington,
DC. Meanwhile, Mary Mills Lane of Jackson started work last week
as a staff assistant for Congressman Chip Pickering in the Washington
office.
Tommy
Squires, who is a member of Lt. Governor Amy Tuck’s security detail, was recently named
“Trooper of the Year.”
House Districts 81-120
District 85 –
| House |
85 |
D |
Arnold |
Clark, Jr. |
| House |
85 |
D |
Jesse |
Harness |
| House |
85 |
D |
Walter |
Huston |
| House |
85 |
D |
America |
Middleton |
| House |
85 |
D |
Jerry |
Sims |
Incumbent
America Middleton should win handily despite the fact that two of the
candidates work for Alcorn State University and have the ASU administration's
blessing.
District 86 -
| House |
86 |
D |
Samuel |
Britton |
| House |
86 |
D |
Tom |
Kittrell |
| House |
86 |
D |
Joe |
Taylor |
Representative
Joe Taylor reluctantly decided to run for re-election, bad news for
his two challengers, as he should win hands down.
District 88 –
| House |
88 |
R |
Jonathan |
Hodge |
| House |
88 |
R |
Diane |
Jordan |
| House |
88 |
R |
Gary |
Staples |
| House |
88 |
D |
Joe |
Ellzey |
Three
Republican primary challengers have lined up to face Incumbent Democrat
Representative Joe Ellzey in this Jones County
based District. Former State Representative Gary Staples is
currently the frontrunner to be the GOP standard bearer. When the ’99
Governor’s race was decided in the House of Representatives, Ellzey voted for Musgrove even though his district had gone
for Parker. Ellzeys’ vote against Parker,
who has deep Jones County roots,
could cause problems if Republicans up ballot have coat tails.
District 90 –
| House |
90 |
R |
Gaines |
Reynolds |
| House |
90 |
D |
Joe |
Warren |
Republican
challenger Gaines Reynolds faces off against long shot speaker possibility
Joe Warren. Reynolds needs to do everything right to pull off the upset
win against Warren.
District 91 –
| House |
91 |
D |
Joey |
Hudson |
| House |
91 |
D |
Antrease |
Autman |
A
possible upset special as challenger Antrease
Aultman may be the beneficiary of an increased BVAP (black
voting age population) in Representative Joey Hudson's new district.
District 93 –
| House |
93 |
R |
Rico |
Lee |
| House |
93 |
D |
Dirk |
Dedeaux |
Democrat
incumbent Representative Dirk Dedeaux faces
strong general election opposition in Rico Lee. Dedeaux
and Lee have strong roots in this district, where family ties carry
a lot of weight. Dedeaux is seen as somewhat
vulnerable. Lee, a hard working campaigner, should receive significant
backing from the business community. This race is going to be one to
watch.
District 95 –
| House |
95 |
D |
Linda |
Johnson |
| House |
95 |
R |
Eric |
Necaise |
| House |
95 |
R |
James |
Overstreet |
| House |
95 |
R |
Robert |
Tompkins |
| House |
95 |
R |
Jessica |
Upshaw |
When
redistricting House District 95 moved across the state from Adams County
to Harrison County, it was left without an incumbent legislator. Four
Republicans and one Democratic candidate jumped into the race to fill
the open seat. On the GOP side, attorney Jessica Upshaw and law enforcement
veteran Robert Tompkins have the early momentum. As of the April 30th
reporting deadline, Upshaw had raised $4,865 including a $2,000 contribution
to herself. Tompkins came in at $3,245 but also put in $2,000 of personal
money. The district leans Republican but the GOP nominee can’t look
past Democratic opponent Linda Johnson. Johnson has one run for city
council under her belt and is active in many local civic organizations.
She has already taken out a $15,000 loan for her campaign.
District 97
| House |
97 |
R |
Randall |
Love |
| House |
97 |
R |
Sam |
Mims |
| House |
97 |
D |
Chad |
Toney |
| House |
97 |
D |
Derrick |
Dall |
Redistricting
gerrymandered House District 97 into a 120 mile long district that snakes
across 6 counties, from the Mississippi River to the border of Jefferson Davis County. In response,
Representative Clem Nettles decided to retire from the legislature.
The district leans Republican and based on early signs should be a pick-up
for the GOP. Neither Democratic Candidate in the race reported over
a $1000 on their May 9th campaign finance report (Derrick
Dahl - $750; Chad Toney - $415). Both Republicans neared the $10,000
mark (Randall Love - $9430; Sam Mims - $9,603). With exceptions of parts
of McComb and Natchez, the district is largely
rural. The district is tailored for Love to win, but he’ll have to get
past Mims in the primary.
District 98 –
| House |
98 |
D |
William |
Brown |
| House |
98 |
D |
James |
Hall |
| House |
98 |
D |
David |
Myers |
| House |
98 |
D |
Larry |
Singleton |
State
Representative David Myers should win, but he will probably face a run-off
with one-time political ally William Brown.
District 99 –
| House |
99 |
R |
James |
Bates |
| House |
99 |
R |
Edward |
Morgan |
| House |
99 |
D |
Bill |
Pigott |
| House |
99 |
D |
Zack |
Rushing |
| House |
99 |
R |
William |
Stogner |
| House |
99 |
D |
Robert |
Vince |
Veteran
legislator Vince may return to the House after a four-year hiatus, defeating
Rushing, a self-proclaimed candidate for Speaker of the House.
District 100 –
| House |
100 |
R |
Virginia |
Carlton |
| House |
100 |
D |
Ken |
Morgan |
| House |
100 |
D |
O. K. |
Moore |
Incumbent
O.K. Moore faces a significant challenge in Virginia Carlton. O.K.,
who was pictured on the front page of the Clarion Ledger catching a
few zzz’s during the special session, could be vulnerable.
District 101 –
| House |
101 |
R |
Joey |
Fillingane |
| House |
101 |
R |
Tony |
Mozingo |
Incumbent State Representative Joey Fillingane was effectively re-elected when his opponent Tony
Mozingo dropped out of the race a few weeks
ago.
District 102 –
| House |
102 |
R |
Derek |
Arrington |
| House |
102 |
R |
Lee |
Davis |
| House |
102 |
D |
Rick |
James |
| House |
102 |
D |
Jolly |
Matthews, III |
Two
Democratic candidates are lining up to oppose Republican Incumbent Lee
Jerrell Davis. Davis’ most significant opponent will be his
Republican opponent Derek Arrington, whose grandfather, Robert E. Arrington
held this legislative seat in the 70’s and his wife is Vice-President
for Government Relations of the Mississippi Hospital Association.
District 106 –
| House |
106 |
D |
Jesse |
Dedeaux |
| House |
106 |
R |
Herb |
Frierson |
| House |
106 |
R |
Mark |
Hines |
| House |
106 |
D |
Sherry |
Morris |
| House |
106 |
D |
Ronnie |
Smith |
Herb
Frierson, who switched to the Republican Party late last year, has a strong primary challenger in Mark Hines.
Hines had been laying the ground work to run against Frierson
long before Frierson switched to the GOP.
If Frierson can get out of the primary, he’ll likely win in November.
If Hines wins, the race in November could be interesting.
District 107 –
| House |
107 |
R |
Tom |
Bailey |
| House |
107 |
D |
Jimmy |
Howell |
| House |
107 |
D |
Mike |
Howell |
| House |
107 |
D |
Doug |
Lee |
| House |
107 |
D |
Deryk |
Parker |
| House |
107 |
D |
Greg |
Reeves |
| House |
107 |
D |
Nolan |
Walker |
Six
Democrats and one Republican lined up to succeed retiring Republican
Representative Percy Maples. This seat represents the Democrats best
chance to pick up a Republican seat.
District 111 –
| House |
111 |
R |
Mike |
Mangum |
| House |
111 |
R |
Carmel |
Smith |
Incumbent
Representative Carmel Wells-Smith faces a significant Pascagoula City
Councilman Mike Mangum. Wells-Smith should win re-nomination but this
race deserves watching.
District 115 –
| House |
115 |
D |
Jamie |
Creel |
| House |
115 |
D |
Glenn |
Endris |
| House |
115 |
D |
Randall |
Patterson |
| House |
115 |
R |
Wendy |
Peavy |
Former State Representative Glenn Endris is attempting to regain a seat in the legislature by
knocking off controversial incumbent legislator Jamie Creel, nephew
of Representative Dianne Peranich. Though
Endris is not extremely popular within the district, Creel
has had several run-ins with the law since the past election. Creel
is in the fight of his political life with Endris,
another veteran of the Legislature.
District 116 –
| House |
116 |
R |
Walter |
Freeman |
| House |
116 |
R |
Charles |
Stein |
| House |
116 |
R |
Leonard |
Bentz |
| House |
116 |
D |
Guy |
Roberts, Jr. |
The
retirement of Republican Representative Les Barnett has made way for
three Republicans and one Democratic candidate to vie to fill the seat.
District 117 –
| House |
117 |
R |
Patrick |
Collins |
| House |
117 |
R |
C. |
Switzer |
| House |
117 |
R |
Michael |
Janus |
Incumbent
Legislator Michael Janus is being challenged
by C.T. Switzer, a former Harrison County Supervisor, and Patrick Collins
who worked for the city of Gulfport until he filed to run against Janus. As the incumbent, Janus has
the edge, but this could be the fight of his political life.
District 121 –
| House |
121 |
R |
Ray |
Harmon |
| House |
121 |
D |
Diane |
Peranich |
When
the House of Representatives was reapportioned, the redistricting pen
was in incumbent Representative Dianne Peranich’s
hand. Nevertheless, she’s drawn a serious challenger in Ray Harmon from
Gulfport. The district leans Democratic, but Harmon represented much
of it on the local school board. Harmon is a relentless campaigner who
may make a race of this in spite of Peranich
having drawn her own district.