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The Magnolia Political Report for November 21, 2001

Magnolia Report #11

Magnolia Report November 21, 2001
(Number 11) - E-mail Version
www.MagnoliaReport.com

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Redistricting and Realigning
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Rumors circulate that Ronnie Musgrove may be open to calling another special session; however, he won't call the legislators back to discuss redistricting unless there is a plan with a reasonable expectation of passage. Despite this, Mississippi Republicans could not have predicted they would still be at the table in redistricting concerns at this point. The Democrats control the state House of Representatives, the state Senate and the Governor's Mansion. By the numbers, Republicans could have been fed any deal that came down the pike. Of the three possibilities: a Democrat plan, a fair plan, or a Republican plan - the GOP needed only one of the last two to be competitive, but the Democrats had the power to enforce a Democrat plan without sufficient opposition.

But no genetic engineering lab could create the cross between elephants and donkeys that occurs naturally in the Mississippi political zoo.

Lieutenant Governor Amy Tuck claims she wants a fair plan. Political cynics (almost redundant) claim she has another agenda, but individuals close to the redistricting process that have played the political game for many years say her concern truly does reside in an issue of fairness. Accusations that Tuck is using redistricting as a means to switch parties or to run for governor or to expand her political base are widespread. While these accusations may not be the reason for her position, they could easily be the result of her taking a stand with the Senate Plan.

With encouragement from her Senate lieutenants, chief of those being Travis Little, as well as other allies, (rumored to include former Lieutenant Governor Brad Dye) she bucked the Democrat line and caught heat from party loyalists.

But by standing firm on the Senate Block Plan in opposition to the House Tornado/Boot Plan she earned the anger of party line Democrats. Chairman Ricky Cole has backed off his criticism of Tuck and qualified many of his statements made during the heat of redistricting battle. But opposition to Tuck has been seized by others including Democrat State Executive Committee member and Noxubee County party boss Ike Brown. He has said he will use procedural or political means to deny Tuck the Democratic nomination in 2003.

Meanwhile, the issue of redistricting has been thrown into the courts with Hinds County activist Rims Barber and former state NAACP President Bea Branch filing suit in Hinds County Chancery Clerk, and Richland Mayor Shirley Hall and Meridian Mayor John Robert Smith filing suit on the federal level.

Several Democrat senators have begun to reconsider their party affiliation and may make a switch before the 2003 elections (but after legislative redistricting). Add to this a lieutenant governor nearly being forced into the GOP by her own party, or at least being given a proper excuse for a switch, and there is the potentiality of a Republican controlled state Senate for the first time since Reconstruction.

So what happened this summer in Mississippi? Republicans were able to get a fair shot at a redistricting process stacked against them. The GOP has been given an opportunity by the Democrats to do what they may not have been able to accomplish otherwise: defeating Democrat Amy Tuck with the Republican Amy Tuck.

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Questions on a Tuck Switch
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Would Amy Tuck bolt to the Republican Party? That is the 2003 million dollar question. Everyone is talking about it across the state. Does she have a home in the Democrat Party and a base to secure the nomination? Ike Brown would say no. Grey Ferris and Troy Brown, who were both defeated without a run-off for the nomination in 1999 might disagree. Would she see legitimate opposition in 2003 from other powerful Democrat factions? Ask Ronnie Musgrove, Mike Espy and Ronnie Shows. Can she raise the money she needs to compete against a primary or general election opponent? Watch for tort reform legislation and ask the trial lawyers and business community afterwards. Will the Republican Party get behind her? The key to the Republican Primary lies in Rankin County, Hinds County, DeSoto County, Lauderdale County and the Coast. At least one of these areas has already committed to support Tuck as a Republican. Plus, a switch is easier and cheaper than a defeat.

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Hits to Magnolia Report Web Page
November 5 to November 19: 15,443
Since Launch (July 6): 114,644
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Round-up and Quick Notes
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Congressman Chip Pickering has revised his campaign web site located at www.pickeringforcongress.com that can be found on the Magnolia Report Candidate Pages.

Adams County Circuit Clerk M.L. "Binkey" Vines received an award from the Mississippi Supreme Court justices for "outstanding leadership, innovation and excellent service to the court."

Hayes Dent, a member of the Mississippi Republican Party State Executive Committee and former GOP nominee for Congress in the Second District, has been named interim executive director for the Delta Regional Authority.

Republican Clinton LeSueur is taking further steps toward a run against Democrat Congressman Bennie Thompson. But Thompson's first concern could be a challenge from within his own party by ex-State Rural Development Director George Irvin.

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Racing for 2003
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Haley Barbour continues his rounds of state Republican meetings in his anticipated run for Governor in 2003. While not yet announcing his plans to run or not, many in the GOP note Barbour's increased presence at typical Republican primary campaign events. He adds his appearance before the Rankin County Republican Party in January and the DeSoto County Republican Party in February to recent events including lead sponsor of the State Republican Party Statesman's Dinner, special guest at Phil Bryant's Gathering of Friends, and a stop in at a Hinds County Republican Party fundraiser.

Meanwhile, Dave Dennis has not ruled out a run for the Mansion as a Republican despite his recent selection to the Federal Reserve Bank Board out of Atlanta. His selection was a choice by the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors and not a political appointment. Still, he has made arrangements to step down as State Finance Chairman of the Republican Party. While the Federal Reserve appointment is a great opportunity for Dennis, it is not a role that he would necessarily hold rather than making a run for the Mississippi's top office.

Secretary of State Eric Clark received a lot of press the past few weeks. Decisions were rendered in the 16th Section Land case in Columbus; he turned over a check for $5.2 million for tidelands leases to the Department of Marine Resources; he caught a little flack from Voter ID proponents for failing to recognize it in his election reform taskforce; and most of all he was applauded for his office's report on Mississippi charities. He received so much press in the state airwaves and editorial pages, one would think he was governor…or at least running for it. While that has been mentioned in the Magnolia Report before, his office has made no public indication of the fact. Politics1.com lists Clark along with West Point Mayor Kenny Dill, former Secretary of State Dick Molpus, and Attorney General Mike Moore as potential Democrat challengers. All have been mentioned in the Magnolia Report, but noticeably absent is the name of Amy Tuck.

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Magnolia Report Poll
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Every two weeks, the Magnolia Report front page hosts a new poll. The past poll asked, "Who benefited the most from redistricting?" The poll wrongfully assumed a decision would be made, but the question of who benefited from the process remains valid. A total of 275 people participated with the following results.

Tim Ford (13) 4%
Chip Pickering (78) 28%
Ronnie Shows (82) 29%
Amy Tuck (47) 17%
People of MS (22) 8%
Other (33) 12%

Others named as benefiting were Senator Trent Lott, Gene Taylor, black Mississippians, Democrats, and variations of nobody. Over thirty comments were left in that section of the poll, many of them back and forth comments between supporters of Congressmen Ronnie Shows and Chip Pickering. Several readers have suggested adding a bulletin board or comment forum to the Magnolia Report and that option is being explored, until then, here is a small sample of the comments:

1) I'd like to see one district in the country where 35% BVAP is considered favorable to a republican. 2) Seems like "Ms. Amy and Mr. Chip" are definitely not interested in rural Mississippi who needs to be represented also. 3) Guess Mike Moore couldn't take not being in the redistricting limelight and so is grandstanding again. Too many cooks in the kitchen Mike. Butt out. 4) The district lines are being sold by politicians who need money for their next campaigns. 5) The district lines are also being sold by the politicians who are afraid of threats of strong candidates running against them in their next election. 6) This process is almost a joke. These district lines are being bought by the wealthiest candidate.

Thanks for voting and writing. The current poll up asks "What is the 2003 political future of Amy Tuck?" Vote today.

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Special Elections
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An initial recap of a few of the special election run-offs:

Copiah County - Superintendent of Schools
Ricky Clopton (2421) 73.3% over Carl Palmer (881) 26.7%

Lee County - Sheriff
Larry Presley (5135) 54% over Steve Brooks (4457) 46%

Madison County - Chancery Clerk
Mike Crook (4913) 53.8% over Charles Weems (4218) 46.2%

Rankin County - Supervisor District 5
Jay Bishop (871) 59.9% over Bobby Turner (583) 40.1%

Simpson County - Sheriff
JC Dillon (2623) 59.0% over Doyle King (1822) 41.0%

Stone County - Superintendent of Education
James W. Morrison (1257) 58% over Dean Belton (926) 42%

More details and a comprehensive list of election results will appear in the Magnolia Report Features Section in the next few weeks.

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Upcoming Events
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==November 27 (Tuesday)==
GOP Meet the Chairman Fundraiser
Special Guests: Senator Thad Cochran and Congressman Chip Pickering
Meridian
==November 30 (Friday)==
Hancock County GOP
Republican Club Kickoff and Christmas Party
7:00pm
==December 1 (Saturday)==
State Democratic Executive Committee Meeting
Tougaloo College: Health and Wellness Center; 10am
==December 3 (Tuesday)==
Special Election, Canton, Ward 2 Alderman
==December 15 (Saturday)==
MS Association of Central Labor Council Meeting
Jackson, Mississippi
===2002 ===
==January 21 (Monday)==
Rankin County Republican Banquet; 6:30 pm
Guest Speaker: Haley Barbour
==February 18 (Monday)==
DeSoto County Republican Party's "President's Day" Dinner
7:00pm at the DeSoto Civic Center on I-55 in Southaven
Guest Speaker: Haley Barbour

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Final Words - Amy Tuck
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"[Democrat Chairman Ricky] Cole said Tuck needs to mend some fences, and he believes she will. 'I believe in the healing power of redemption,' he said. Cole also pointed out one thing he believes will keep her in the Democratic stables. 'She won that election in 1999 with strong Democratic support. I don't know what kind of future she would have in this state as a Republican.'" - Sam Hall, Natchez Democrat: November 7, 2001

"[Republican Chairman Jim] Herring said Tuck simply stood up for what was in the public's best interest, which has nothing to do with Republicans or Democrats. Still, if she can't find a place in the Democratic Party, Herring said there's always room in the Republican camp. 'We've always said the doors of our church are wide open to those who believe as we believe,' he said." -Patrice Sawyer, Clarion Ledger: November 12, 2001

"'To say I'm hurt and disappointed would be an understatement,' Shows said in an interview last week. He said he wasn't asking Tuck to hand him a district, but he didn't want her to hand one to Pickering, either. He's not the only Democrat wondering why Tuck's congressional map looked the way it did. The redistricting battle continues, and the results could shape Tuck's political future as much as it does Pickering's or Shows'." - Emily Wagster, Associated Press: November 13, 2001

"The mystery person in the whole affair is Democratic Lt. Gov. Amy Tuck who is being accused by many of her fellow Democrats of selling out to the Republicans with the remapping plan she pushed. Tuck could be an eventual loser down the road if Shows winds up losing his Congressional seat. There seems little doubt in state political circles that if Shows is cut out of Congress he will target Tuck's job in 2003, tough campaigner that he is. That is, if she would run as a Democrat. And for lieutenant governor. She may have higher ambitions." - Bill Minor, Neshoba County Democrat: November 14, 2001

"Let's face it, people. Are the voters of Mississippi really going to punish someone for putting regional and economic interests ahead of the personal political fortunes of one Democrat from Bassfield? Tuck may be in dutch with some party partisans and certainly has ticked off the Shows camp. But with the voters, Tuck's likely in better shape than ever." - Sid Salter, Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal: November 15, 2001

"[Noxubee County Democrat Chairman Ike] Brown called Tuck a 'scalawag Democrat.' Candidates must meet certain qualifications to stay on the state Democratic ticket as mandated by the party's constitution. Brown said that party law has not been enforced strictly in the past. 'I won't vote her for recertification, and encouraged others not to reconfirm Tuck,' Brown said. 'I didn't support her when she ran, and when she double-crossed us on the redistricting matter, that was it,' Brown said. 'If she won't stick with the party, then good riddance.'" -Associated Press: November 19, 2001

"The Senate remains majority Democratic for now, but a Tuck departure from the party - forced or voluntary - could trigger a mass exodus of Senate moderates to the GOP. Republicans, who already have the upper hand in conservative-leaning Mississippi, are gleeful about the prospects." -Editorial, Clarksdale Press Register: November 19, 2001

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Magnolia Political Report, 2001
Brian Perry, Editor
www.magnoliareport.com
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© Magnolia Political Report 2001 • PO Box 24233 Jackson, Mississippi 39225
FAX 601.355.7885 • scoop@magnoliareport.com
Brian Perry, Editor