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Sign-Gate In the spot Cochran lauds his “good friend” Haley Barbour, calling him a Mississippi success story. He even goes so far as to take Governor Musgrove to task (though not by name) for “false misleading attacks” on Barbour. Ronnie Musgrove has stuck to constant themes in his last several spots. Musgrove has sought to portray Barbour as a Washington lobbyist and has tried to hang NAFTA around his neck. Musgrove may have pushed it too far by accusing Barbour of “poisoning children” through his work lobbying on behalf of Tobacco Companies during negotiations on the national tobacco settlement. Tuck – Lt. Gov. Amy Tuck is up with an ad making hay off of Barbara Blackmon’s colossal blunder on the touchy subject of abortion. Several weeks ago, after Tuck was endorsed by two Right to Life groups, Blackmon challenged Tuck to sign an affidavit swearing she has never had an abortion. Newspapers around the state pounced on Blackmon for the comments, which they considered out of bounds. Tuck’s ad begins with negative quotes about Blackmon from editorials from four state newspapers. The second part of the ad highlights some less than popular votes Blackmon made in the State Senate. It finishes by concluding that Barbara Blackmon had a “radical” record in the Senate. Blackmon – A week before Tuck hit the airwaves with her ad on her opponent, Blackmon was up with a spot blaming Mississippi’s poor economic performance the past few years of Tuck. The first part of the spot featured a clip from Tuck’s first commercial – the one with the red 50’s era pick-up pulling a car out of the mud. Tuck’s spot was making the point that the state’s economy is “stuck in the mud” and that stopping lawsuit abuse is the way to get it going. Blackmon used the footage to say Tuck is the problem. Blackmon was taken to task by WAPT-TV in Jackson for a later claim in the ad. According to Blackmon’s commercial, she had been an insider on the deal that landed Nissan in Canton. WAPT researched the claim and concluded it is false. Governor Ronnie Musgrove apparently wavered on even getting into the race in the first place. It was widely reported at the time that he was heavily lobbying for the presidency of Delta State University in the days before the March 1st qualifying deadline. When Musgrove didn’t get the job, he threw his hat into the ring for re-election. After a slow start with fundraising, Musgrove has become more and more aggressive on the campaign trail. According to campaign finance reports, Musgrove should have enough money to keep up with rival Barbour. Musgrove has tirelessly worked to define Barbour as an outsider and he hammers Barbour constantly on ties he made during his successful career as a lobbyist. Barbour ran months of positive television prior to Musgrove hitting the airwaves in September. Out of the gate, Musgrove began taking swings at Barbour. Press accounts tend to hold both candidates responsible for the negative tone of the campaign – but it is interesting to note which candidate a negative tenor benefits the most. To a degree, Barbour – as any challenger facing an incumbent – must convince voters they made a mistake in electing Musgrove in 1999. However, Musgrove didn’t win a majority in 1999 and since then he’s supported a disastrous referendum on the state flag and has presided over a huge fiscal downturn in the state. To win, Barbour needs a heavy turn-out among voters most disaffected with Musgrove’s leadership as governor – mostly white voters from both suburban and rural parts of the state. Musgrove on the other hand must get out his Democrat base and pick-off enough swing voters to get at least a plurality of the vote. Musgrove is aiming at primarily rural white men worried about the jobs in his effort to secure the swing voters needed for victory. This is why he works NAFTA into almost every comment he makes. He’s working his traditional Democrat base in ways that don’t always show up on the radar screen – like get-out-the-vote rallies and other GOTV activities. The other key component in Musgrove’s strategy appears to by denying Barbour the votes he needs form suburban and rural white to win. Musgrove doesn’t necessarily have to get those voters to cast their ballots for him. Those voters not showing up at the polls for Barbour would be almost as good for Musgrove. In that regard, the perceived negative tone of the campaign may benefit Musgrove the most. In study after study, negative campaigns depress voter turnout, and they depress turnout the most among the very voters Barbour needs to win. Lt.
Governor Attorney
General Treasurer
Presidential
Visits According to sources close to the Barbour campaign, Bush will make a Saturday morning stop in the Republican stronghold of DeSoto County to rally voters for Barbour. After two stops in Kentucky, the President might return to Mississippi for some last minute campaigning on the Gulf Coast. Last year, Bush very effectively campaigned across the country to help the GOP win several contested Senate contests. Republican candidates in Georgia, Missouri, Minnesota, Tennessee and Texas and South Carolina received major boosts from Bush’s barnstorming. In a governor’s race as close as this one appears to be, Bush’s visits could be decisive for Barbour. Vice
President Dick Cheney Bob
Dole Rudy
Giuliani Dems However,
statewide Democrats are banning together to rally their base in events
around the state. Last weekend, several hundred of their supporters turned-out
for a get-out-the-vote rally in Pontotoc that was attended by Musgrove,
Blackmon and Gary Anderson. The Dems moved their show up the road to New
Albany later in the day with a reportedly much smaller crowd on hand.
Judge
Pickering Judge Charles Pickering was nominated by President Bush to a seat on the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals. Senate Democrats have stalled the nomination for over a year. Pickering was recently approved by the Senate Judiciary Committee, but he faces a filibuster in the Senate. Needing only one or three votes to break the filibuster (60 votes are needed for cloture to end a filibuster), Congressman Pickering has been vigorously working the Senate to sway the handful of votes needed for his dad to win confirmation. Pickering supporters have gone on a PR offensive to secure the nomination for the Mississippi Judge. They recently released this video http://committeeforjustice.org/contents/commercial/index.shtml in support of the Judge’s nomination. Debates In
his close, Barbour challenged Musgrove to defend spot the governor has
on TV accusing Barbour of poisoning children. Some reports say Barbour
lost his cool. Others conclude Musgrove “wimped out” when
he failed to defend his ad or even look at his opponent as Barbour challenged
him to look him in the eyes while accusing him of poisoning children.
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The
race for Governor looks like it will come down to the wire. Neither candidate
has gotten much separation, though Barbour has a slight lead in most polls
seen by the Magnolia Report.
Democrat
Gary Anderson and Republican Tate Reeves are both struggling to build
name ID in a down-ballot race that is hard to finance. Reeves built some
name ID with primary ads in Central and South Mississippi. That advantage
is probably offset by the ballot advantage Anderson enjoys by virtue of
being a Democrat in a down-ticket race. This one may come down to how
much TV each can muster.
President
George W. Bush visited the Magnolia State in November, where he helped
his friend Haley Barbour raise over $2 million for Barbour’s campaign
coffers. Bush reportedly will make to return visits to Mississippi on
Saturday, November 1st. This time, instead of helping raise money, Bush
will help Barbour energize Republicans and maybe even sway a few voters
who are still undecided.
According
to published reports, Columbus Mayor Jeffrey Rupp confirms that the Secret
Service has been in Columbus scouting locations for an appearance by Vice
President Dick Cheney. Cheney will rally Barbour’s troops in Columbus
on the afternoon of Monday, October 27th. As a former Secretary of Defense,
Cheney will attract plenty of interest in Columbus – a town heavily
intertwined with the nearby Columbus Air Force Base.
www.ronniemustgo.com
www.barbarablackmon.com
www.mississippiwatchdog.com
